Gas prices and retirement accounts shouldn’t react to the same news, but they have lately. Famous former hedge fund investor Michael Burry argues that the stock market is not only responding to the US war with Iran but is also being shaped by how quickly the US tries to end it.
Barry, the “Big Short” investor famous for predicting and profiting from the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis,says President Donald Trump’s handling of the conflict in Iran is making him allergic to market downturns.
In an explicit Substack post from March 21 (1), Barry called the stock market
“Trump’s kryptonite”, writing that his Iran strategy is to “get out before the market drops too much”. It’s a shame Americans died for it.”
The reason Bury’s claim matters to everyday households is simple: When energy shocks are coupled with persistent inflation and higher interest rates, consumer budgets become tighter and retirement portfolios become unstable at the same time.
Consumers are feeling the familiar shock of rising gas prices — one of the fastest ways a distant conflict can hit home. Threats to oil shipping drive up crude oil prices, which in turn increases the cost of gasoline, potentially leading to prolonged inflation.
Its impact is already visible on the oil markets. Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, rose above $100 a barrel during the conflict and was pushed back below $92 due to the announcement of a two-week ceasefire – then rose above $100 once again on April 13 after peace talks broke down (2).
Either way, these prices are well above the $67 level recorded on February 27, before the war began. Due to Trump now blocking the Strait of Hormuz (3), as well as damaged infrastructure and proposed transit fees for ships passing through, oil prices may remain high in the near term.
In a CNBC interview (4), Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President and CEO Austin Goolsby warned, “What makes this a frightening but intense moment is that no one can tell us what is going to happen on the ground in the conflict in the Middle East and how long it will last.”
Consumer and investor concerns are the backdrop to Burry’s provocative claim that market pain can be an invisible hand on foreign policy. If markets punish uncertainty, leaders who treat the market as a scoreboard may have an incentive to reduce that uncertainty rapidly.
Indeed, reports about large, well-timed trades made just before Trump threatened strikes that were delayed or softened have intensified scrutiny of the conflict (5), but the White House has rejected suggestions of coordination or market-driven war management.
But it cannot be denied that the markets are unusually volatile. The S&P 500 crossed the 7,000 level for the first time on January 28, a milestone widely associated with optimism about AI and expectations of easy monetary policy (6). As of March 30, it closed at 6,343.72, its lowest in 2026 (7).
Oil has become even more dramatic since the start of the Iran conflict, with oil shipping lanes rising and falling daily on the latest headlines – including same-day swings that show how traders are reevaluating the conflict minute by minute.
Read more: Robert Kiyosaki warns of ‘Great Depression’ – millions of Americans will become poor. Was he right?
Criticism of the acquittal may resonate because it reflects how President Trump often talks about success.
In his State of the Union speech on February 24 (8), Trump boasted of dozens of stock market record highs and told Americans that “401(k) and retirement are responsible for millions and millions of Americans, they are all getting benefits. Everyone is up, very up.”
There is a clear link between household well-being and market performance – it makes sense to think that market declines could translate into political pressure.
It’s also notable that the criticism is coming from Barry himself, a contrarian whose reputation rests on seeing incentives and market vulnerabilities before others. Barry, known as the “Big Short” investor, made millions of dollars for himself and investors by betting against the housing market before the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis (9).
For consumers, “war risk” often appears as higher daily expenses and a more destabilizing effect on their savings. AAA put the national average gas price at $3.98 as of March 25 (10).
Elsewhere, a Reuters/Ipsos poll (11) found that 55% of Americans said rising gas prices had at least “somewhat” affected their household finances, and 87% expected prices to rise further in the next month due to the conflict.
So, how can you combat the effects of war on your finances?
Build a small cushion – or emergency fund – for gas and groceries so you’re not forced to resort to cards if prices rise again.
For example, a high-yield account such as Wealthfront Cash Account This can be a great place to grow your uninvested cash, offering both competitive interest rates and easy access to your money when you need it.
The Wealthfront Cash Account currently offers a base APY of 3.30% through program banks, and new customers can get an additional 0.75% boost on up to $150,000 during their first three months. Total Variable APY 4.05%.
That’s ten times the national deposit savings rate, according to the FDIC’s March report.
Additionally, Wealthfront is offering new customers who enable direct deposits ($1,000/month minimum) into their cash account and open and fund a new investment account an additional 0.25% APY increase, with no expiration date or balance limits, meaning Your APY can be up to 4.30%.
With no minimum balance or account fees, plus 24/7 withdrawals and free domestic wire transfers, your money is accessible at all times. Plus, you get Access to $8M FDIC Insurance Eligibility through Program Banks.
A market decline may seem scary, but selling on impulse often results in a loss.
History shows that the rebound can be swift. For example, after Trump announced a ceasefire to the ongoing conflict in Iran, the Nasdaq Composite jumped 3.5%, while the S&P 500 rose 2.6% – evidence that markets can change rapidly (12).
Instability is part of the game.
Famous investor Warren Buffett wrote in Berkshire Hathaway’s 2013 shareholder letter (13), “Over time American business will perform well. And stocks will certainly perform well, because their fortunes are tied to business performance.” “Yes, there will be setbacks from time to time, but investors and managers are in a game that is stacked in their favor.”
In other words, it is more prudent to invest consistently than to try to time the market. Instead of waiting for the right time to invest, consider automating the process by investing small amounts regularly.
For example, investing just $30 each week could grow to more than $93,000 over 20 years, assuming it compounds at a rate of 10% annually (14).
If these types of returns are so attractive that it is not possible to give them up, prefer the platform chestnut Allows you to convert your spare change from everyday shopping into an investment opportunity.
All you have to do is link your cards, and Acorns will automatically round up all expenses to the nearest dollar, rounding up the difference. Once your savings reach $5, they are automatically invested into a smart investment portfolio.
So, for example, when you buy your morning coffee for $4.25, Acorns deducts $5 from your account and invests the difference in a diversified portfolio of ETFs managed by experts from leading investment firms like Vanguard and BlackRock.
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If inflation remains stable due to high energy prices, debt may become more expensive; If you have credit debt, prioritize paying off your highest APR, or outstanding loan balance, first.
You can also consider consolidating your high-interest debt into a single payment through a personal loan at a lower interest rate (ideally). This way, you won’t have to juggle multiple payments.
like credit market Nouveau riche You can get a personal loan offer within minutes.
Instead of relying solely on credit scores, Upstart’s AI-powered platform looks at a variety of factors, including income, education, and employment, to give you offers that may be better suited to your individual situation.
have to put fast and simple. Simply submit some personal and financial details and get an instant decision from Upstart’s AI-powered platform. Once approved, your loan is funded by a trusted bank or credit union partner, often the next business day.
Market volatility is part of investing, but putting a portion of your portfolio in safe-haven assets can help cushion the ride.
For example, gold has emerged as a strong performer over the past 12 months, jumping more than 50% as of April 14 (15). And the precious metal has long served as a hedge against inflation and market fluctuations, sometimes outperforming stocks during recessions.
Even longtime skeptics are reconsidering.
Jamie Dimon, who has long said he is not a “gold buyer” because “the cost of holding it is 4%”, acknowledged at the Forbes 2025 Power Women Summit that the current market may justify holding some gold (16).
“This is one of the few times in my life, it’s semi-rational to have something in your portfolio,” Dimon said.
A way to invest in gold that also offers significant tax benefits Open a Gold IRA with Priority Gold.
Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, combining the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of an IRA. investing in goldThat makes it an attractive option for people who want to potentially protect their retirement funds against economic uncertainty.
To learn more, you can get a free information guide that includes details on how to do this Get up to $10,000 in free silver On eligible purchases.
– With files from Chris Clark
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@michaeljburry (1); BBC(2); CNBC (3),(4),(7),(12); Yahoo News (5); The Guardian (6); PBS(8); Yahoo Finance (9); aaa fuel prices (10); Reuters (11); Berkshire Hathaway (13); acorn (14); APMAX(15); Luck (16)
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