Gold Price Forecast Today: Where are gold and prices headed in the near term? check approach
gold price prediction Today: Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst – Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset Sharekhan, says gold prices are expected to continue rising as demand for the safe-haven asset is increasing. He provides the following outlook on gold prices:
- On Monday, January 5, spot gold attracted bids for safe haven investments and rose by more than 2.5% as US President Trump raised geopolitical risks by capturing and removing Venezuelan leader Maduro, with whom other countries with strained relations could also be targeted.
- The metal rose to $4456, its highest in a week.
- At the time of writing, spot gold was trading at $4445, up 2.65% for the day, while the MCX February contract was up 1.65% at Rs 137,997.
- Earlier, the shiny metal had fallen over 4% in the week ended January 2 due to profit-booking and selling related to margin hikes.
Eye on geopolitics:
- Maduro’s forced ouster has sparked a new wave of geopolitical anxiety, especially in countries that have historically had uneasy relations with the United States. Many view this episode as part of a longer cycle of US intervention in Latin America – from early 20th-century regime change to Cold War-era intervention – raising fears that countries not perceived as friendly to Washington may face similar pressure.
- The US operation in Venezuela is a forceful example of Washington’s apparent revival of the Monroe Doctrine, first expressed in 1823 to resist the influence of outside powers in the Western Hemisphere and later invoked in the 20th century to justify strategic interventions.
- The Venezuela episode signals a clear message to contemporary rivals such as China and Russia: the Western Hemisphere remains firmly within the traditional US sphere of influence.
- Geopolitical risks loom large: US President Trump has threatened military action against Colombia as he accuses the country of selling cocaine to the US.
- Trump has once again expressed interest in Greenland as a strategic area for US interests.
- On a show on NBC on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Cuba a big problem.
- Many Chinese social media users said the Venezuela operation provides a template for how China might handle the Taiwan issue.
Data Roundup:
- The US ISM manufacturing index fell to 47.90 in December from 48.20 in November; the data lags an estimate of 48.20; thus, there was more contracting than expected. Manufacturing contracted for the tenth consecutive month, as it suffered its worst contraction since October 2025. ISM prices remained higher at 58.50, while new orders and employment contracted.
- China’s Ratingdog PMI composite stood at 51.30 in December, beating the previous reading of 51.2, as the services index stood at an encouraging 52.
Upcoming Data:
- Key US data this week include the ISM Services Index (January 7), JOLT Job Openings (January 7), the Non-Farm Payrolls report (January 9) and University of Michigan sentiment and inflation readings (January 9).
- China’s PPI and CPI for the month of December will be released on January 9. China is to update its foreign exchange reserves data on January 7; in the process it will also update its gold holdings.
- Eurozone key leads on deck include services PMI (January 6), CPI (January 7) and retail sales (January 9).
- UK services and composite PMIs will be released on January 6.
- Richmond Fed President Barkin Raleigh will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Chamber Economic Forecast 2026:
Fedspeak:
- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that interest rates may now be near neutral levels for the US economy. He said the incoming data should guide the central bank’s actions.
Dollar Index and Yields:
- At the time of writing this article, the US Dollar Index was trading at 98.60, up about 0.20% for the day.
- US 2-year yields fell 1 bps to 3.46%, while 10-year yields fell 2 bps to 4.17%.
ETF Holdings and COMEX Inventories:
- As of January 2, total known global gold ETF holdings were 98.84 MOZ, down 0.1 MOZ for the week, although holdings remain near the highest level since September 2022.
- Registered COMEX gold inventories remained unchanged at 19.362 MOz for the seventh consecutive day, as of January 2.
COMEX Gold Delivery:
- COMEX gold deliveries stood at 369 units for the week ended January 2, the lowest weekly delivery volume since the third week of September.
CFTC data:
- Updated CFTC data shows that investors are increasing their net long positions in many commodities, most notably gold, gasoline, copper and silver, as they increase their net long positions on commodity currencies like the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso.
gold price outlook,
- Spot gold is expected to continue rising due to renewed safe-haven investment demand. The Caribbean geopolitical situation will provide an additional boost to global central banks’ drive to increase the share of gold in their foreign exchange reserves.
- The exposure will come from US ISM services, JOLTs, and non-farm payroll data. Moreover, CME may further increase margins to curb speculative trends. Selling, induced by the rebalancing of commodity indexes, is another risk. The five-day index rebalancing will begin on January 8.
- The metal may test resistance at $4550. Buying on dips is the preferred strategy.
- Support is at $4393/$4296. Resistance lies at $4472/$4550.
Silver’s Perspective:
- Silver, which was looking unstable due to geopolitical concerns, attracted new aggressive bids on Monday.
- Total known global silver ETF holdings remain at 863.79 MOz, the highest since June 2022. Spot silver jumped more than 5% on January 5.
- At the time of writing, the grey metal was trading at $77.63, up nearly 7% for the day. The March silver contract on MCX was up 4.70% at Rs 247,455.
- The one-month silver lease rate remained at 8.52% and the highest since October 23.
- Healthy risk appetite is also boosting silver prices.
- Silver may have to test resistance around $80/$81. A rise to $85 cannot be ruled out if the US dollar weakens.
- Support is at $75/$73.36/$72.50/$70. Resistance lies at $78.69/$80.72/$85.
Risks include index rebalancing sales, margin increases and the US data listed above; thus, buying on dips remains the preferred strategy, as the metal is quite stretched at current levels. Experts on the stock market, other asset classes, and personal finance management express their own recommendations and views. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.
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