‘Donald Trump leaving office could be a ploy – but Iran is unlikely to accept it.’

US President Donald Trump losingers Tehran a concession they are unlikely to accept – but it could also be a ploy to buy time to prepare for an escalation in the war.

Just weeks after this ill-planned, poorly justified and legally dubious conflict, initiated by US President Donald Trump, it seemed that it could turn into another ‘forever war’. Despite Trump’s claims of winning, and despite not needing military help from allies, he has spent the last year being insulted on the world stage, making it seem impossible to know how long the conflict will last.

It would be ‘weeks’; it was beginning to sound like optimism, and it would go down in history as the biggest and most seismic blunder ever realised on the world stage by an American president. But with his massive and humiliating collapse today, Trump has claimed that the US and Iran could be moving closer to “a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East”.

That statement alone, although it is highly questionable, is a major fall for Trump and will not hurt the Iranian regime he has seen firsthand. Adding more chaos to the mix, Iran has reiterated its claim that it is not talking to the US, a claim repeated by Iranian news agencies close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Israeli self-propelled howitzer fired towards southern Lebanon as conflict in the Middle East escalates (Image: AFP via Getty Images)

Read more: Trump’s war on Iran could ‘run out of missiles’ in Ukraine. Read more: Donald Trump escalates Iran war with terrifying bunker-buster ‘penetrator’ bomb missions

So, for now, it appears that Donald Trump has offered Tehran an off-ramp, which is something the United States desperately needs to de-escalate. Toning down his threat to destroy “Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure,” he said he would stay for a period of five days.

Footage shows an Iranian ship engulfed in flames near Bandar Abbas following attacks linked to the ongoing US-Israeli campaign. (Image: Instagram)

Iran likely believes it is winning this war, perhaps misguidedly, but they will be unable to trust Trump’s words and will become cautious in the coming weeks and perhaps months, yet maintain an aggressive stance toward the States, Israel, and their allies.

Trump has tried to bluff his way out of this disaster, sending ground troops and threatening to blow up Iran’s energy infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz is opened. As the war nears its 24th day, he claims victory, but even opening the straits won’t end the crisis.

There is no doubt that the US and Israeli forces have greatly weakened Iran’s military, but the regime remains intact and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has not been resolved. It will likely need to be secured for years and if Trump still launches a ‘boots on the ground’ operation, it will lead to inevitable mission reduction and demand for more forces, ships, warplanes and escalation.

Iran is targeting sites across the region, including the US Embassy headquarters in Baghdad (Image: AFP via Getty Images)

This scenario is a bit like US General William Westmoreland insisting that he could see ‘light at the end of the tunnel’, because his illusions told the US that the US was winning the Vietnam War. He counted the number of Viet Cong deaths as a metric for assessing victory while insisting on sending more troops to the front lines, a perfect example of mission creep and escalation.

Recently the war in Afghanistan lasted almost 20 years because the military and politicians insisted that the country was being transformed, humiliating and defeating the Taliban. Once again, additional troops were deployed, and politicians maintained that human rights were being achieved through the use of force, despite the Taliban establishing shadow governments in every province.

Iranian Red Crescent clears blast debris in Tehran (Image: AP)

Not only that, but the Taliban also told us that they were doing this ten years ago; a senior commander who met me in Pakistan said that everything was already in place in their network. The world can take a sigh of relief that a major tension has stopped for the time being.

However, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to dissipate. An intelligence assessment seen this morning said, “Iran has turned its long coastline on the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz into a strategic asset against the United States and Israel.

“No matter how the strait is reopened—whether through a diplomatic agreement or the threat or use of force— Iran’s regime has established a new normal in the Persian Gulf that positions Tehran to influence the global energy market.”