What to know about South Sudan’s major offensive against opposition forces

Nairobi, Kenya — NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) – The South Sudanese army has announced a major military operation against opposition forces following recent territorial losses, which has raised concerns about civilian security.

In a statement on Sunday, army spokesman Lul Rui Koang said Operation Enduring Peace would begin and ordered civilians to immediately evacuate three counties in Jonglei state. He directed the aid groups to leave within 48 hours.

On Monday, Koung informed The Associated Press that the operation aims to recapture towns recently taken over by opposition forces and to “re-establish law and order”.

The announcement came a day after a senior military commander was filmed urging his troops to kill civilians and destroy property in the Jonglei attack, drawing a rebuke from the United Nations and others.

The security situation in some parts of South Sudan has deteriorated.

African Union Commission Chairman Mahmoud Ali Youssef said he felt “deep concern at the deteriorating security situation in some parts” of South Sudan. His statement also said Yusuf was “gravely concerned by reports of inflammatory rhetoric and actions” that could incite violence against civilians.

Alan Boswell of the International Crisis Group said, “It is now indisputable: South Sudan has returned to war.” “This is incredibly sad for a country that is only getting weaker and poorer.”

Here’s what you need to know about the conflict in South Sudan:

In early December, a coalition of opposition forces captured several government outposts in central Jonglei, an area that is the homeland of the Nuer ethnic group and an opposition stronghold.

Some of those forces are loyal to Opposition leader Riek Machar, while others consider themselves part of an ethnic Nuer militia called the White Army. White Army fighters have historically fought alongside Machar but consider themselves a separate group.

Machar, an ethnic Nuer, was made the most senior of the five vice presidents. The 2018 peace agreement ended the fighting between Machar’s forces and those loyal to President Salva Kiir, who represents the country’s largest ethnic group, the Dinka. That five-year civil war was fought largely along ethnic lines, leaving an estimated 400,000 people dead.

But violence has increased again in the last year with sporadic fighting.

Machar was suspended from his post as South Sudan’s No. Last year, Machar was suspended from his position as South Sudan’s No. 2 leader after White Army fighters captured a military base in Nasser city. He now faces treason and other charges over that attack, which the authorities allege Machar helped organise. However, Machar’s allies and some international observers argue that the charges are politically motivated. He is still under house arrest; his trial is slowly emerging in the capital, Juba.

Machar’s case is pending This is widely seen as a violation of the 2018 peace agreement. Yet Kiir and his allies say the agreement is still being implemented, pointing to an opposition faction in the unity government.

Forces loyal to Machar have declared the deal dead and have since increased pressure on the army by seizing arsenals and launching hit-and-run attacks on government targets. Analysts say the insurgency is gaining momentum in several states, and the government is relying on massive aerial bombardment to defeat it.

After capturing the government post of Pajut in Jonglei on January 16, opposition forces threatened to advance towards Juba. The government responded by massing several thousand fighters in nearby Poktap. Ugandan soldiers protect Juba.

Army Chief of Staff Paul Nang gave his troops a week to “crush the rebellion” in Jonglei.

On Saturday, a day before the army announced its offensive, a senior military commander was filmed urging his forces to kill all civilians and destroy property during operations in Jonglei. The identity of the person who took this video remains unclear, despite its widespread distribution on social media.

General Johnson Oloni told forces in Duques County, not far from Pajut, “Spare no life.” “Upon arrival, ensure we do not abandon any elderly individuals, chickens, houses, or any other property.”

In South Sudan, civilian abuses such as sexual violence and forced recruitment have repeatedly implicated armed groups, including the military.

Oloni’s remarks were particularly offensive and raised concerns. “We are shocked, we are troubled, we are amazed,” said Edmund Yakani, a prominent civic leader.

Oloni’s words imply the empowerment of government troops to perpetrate atrocities, crimes against humanity, and potentially even genocide.

The United Nations Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan expressed “grave concern” over the developments and said that “the risk of large-scale violence against civilians has increased significantly.”

Machar’s political group said in a statement that Oloni’s words were “an early indicator of genocidal intent”.

Speaking to the AP, government spokesman Atene Weke Atene called Oloni’s comments “unnecessary” and “a mistake.”

But he also said that although it was possible that Oloni was “trying to boost the morale of his forces”, his words are not indicative of government policy.

Oloni, who was appointed assistant chief of defence forces for mobilisation and disarmament a year ago, also leads a militia from his Shilluk tribe, known as Agwelek, which he agreed to integrate into the army last year.

The deployment of Oloni in Nuer communities is controversial due to a separate rivalry between the Shilluk and Nuer communities. In 2022, White Army fighters destroyed Shilluk villages and displaced thousands of civilians before the government intervened with attack helicopters.

Oloni’s forces were also involved in military operations in other Nuer communities last year.

“Their deployment in Jonglei is incendiary,” said Joshua Craze, an independent analyst and author on South Sudan. “His presence in the state is a publicity bonanza for efforts to unite the opposition.”