Saudi, UAE, Iraq: Could three pipelines help drain oil from the Strait of Hormuz? | US-Israel war over Iran news
As the United States-Israel war over Iran enters its fourth week this weekend, oil and gas markets are under increasing pressure due to severe disruptions to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as attacks on and around major energy facilities in the Gulf.
In peacetime, 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas is shipped from Gulf producers through the Strait of Hormuz – the only route to the open ocean – including 20 million barrels of oil per day.
To make up for the shortfall caused by its closure, countries in the Middle East are looking for alternative routes to export energy.
In this explainer, we look at three key pipelines in the Middle East that producers may be pinning their hopes on, and whether they can fill the gap.
What has happened in the Strait of Hormuz?
On March 2 – two days after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran – Ibrahim Jabari, a senior advisor to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the strait was “closed”. If any ships tried to pass through, the IRGC and the navy would “set fire to those ships”, he said. Since then, traffic through the strait has declined by more than 95 percent.
Iranian officials have recently said the strait is not completely closed – except to ships belonging to the US, Israel and those who cooperate with them – but they have also instituted new ground rules. Any ship must obtain Tehran’s approval to transit through the narrow waterway.
As a result, for the past fortnight, countries have been struggling to strike deals with Iran to ensure safe passage and some, mostly Indian, Pakistani and Chinese flagged tankers have been allowed to pass.
On Thursday, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim thanked Tehran for granting “prompt clearance” to Malaysian ships through the strait.
Meanwhile, about 2,000 ships flying flags of other countries are stranded on both sides of the strait.
Which oil pipelines can serve as alternative routes?
The only option for shipping oil is to transport it by pipe across land or under the sea. Three oil pipelines may operate around the Strait of Hormuz, including:
Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline
The East-West Pipeline is also known as Petroline and is operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco. Aramco is one of the world’s largest companies, with a market capitalization of more than $1.7 trillion and annual revenues of $480bn. The oil giant controls 12 percent of global oil production with a capacity of more than 12 million bpd.
It is a 1,200 km (745 mi) long pipeline that runs from the Abqaiq oil processing center near the Gulf in Saudi Arabia to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea on the other side of the country.
However, the pipeline does not have the capacity to fully compensate for the Hormuz closure.
According to UN data, in 2024, about 20 million barrels per day (bpd) will pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil and condensate accounted for 14 million bpd, while petroleum accounted for the remaining 6 million bpd.
The East-West Pipeline has the capacity to transport up to 7 million bpd. On March 10, Aramco said about 5 million bpd could be made available for export, while the rest could be supplied to local refineries.
Since the US-Israeli war over Iran began in late February, Saudi Arabia has increased its oil flows through this pipeline. Flows through the pipeline averaged 770,000 bpd in January and February, according to data from data and analytics company Kpler. This rose to an average of 2.9 million bpd as of Tuesday this week.
However, there are still risks in using the Saudi pipeline.
The Houthis, an Iran-backed Yemeni armed group whose attacks on ships in the Red Sea caused global shipping chaos during Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza from 2023 to 2025, may target the Bab al-Mandeb strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean beyond.
An unidentified Houthi leader told Reuters news agency that the Houthis are ready to launch another attack in the Red Sea in solidarity with Tehran, the agency reported on Thursday.
The Houthi leader said, “We are fully prepared militarily with all options. As far as other details related to setting the zero hour are concerned, they have been left to the leadership and we are monitoring the developments and ascertaining when is the appropriate time to proceed.”
The Bab el-Mandeb is the southern outlet of the Red Sea, located between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea on the African coast.
It is one of the world’s most important routes for global maritime commodity shipments, particularly for crude oil and fuel coming from the Gulf to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal or the SUMED pipeline on Egypt’s Red Sea coast, as well as commodities bound for Asia, including Russian oil.
The Bab el-Mandeb is 29 km (18 mi) wide at its narrowest point, limiting traffic to two channels for incoming and outgoing shipments.
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim said on Wednesday, citing an unnamed Iranian military source, that Iran could open a new front in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if Iranian territory or its islands are attacked.
Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline of the United Arab Emirates
The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline is also called ADCOP or Habshan-Fujairah Pipeline.
The 380 km pipeline runs from Habshan, an oil and gas field in the southwestern region of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.
The pipeline, which became operational in 2012, has a capacity of approximately 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd). It is unclear how much is now being transported through the pipeline.
However, oil exports from Fujairah rose last month despite the closure of the strait, averaging 1.62 million bpd in March compared with 1.17 million bpd in February, according to Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball who spoke to Reuters.
Iraq-Türkiye crude oil pipeline
The Iraq–Türkiye crude oil pipeline, also known as the Kirkuk–Ceyhan Pipeline, connects Iraq with Turkey’s Mediterranean coast.
The pipeline, which has a capacity of 1.6 million bpd, is currently at about 200,000 bpd.
Iraq is one of the top five global producers of oil and the second largest within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with more than 4 million bpd.
Could these pipelines replace the Strait of Hormuz?
No. While these pipelines may take some capacity to the Strait of Hormuz, their combined capacity is only 9 million bpd, compared to about 20 million bpd for the Strait.
Additionally, these pipelines are land-based and within range of Iranian missiles and drones, making them as vulnerable to attacks and damage in the ongoing conflict as ships traveling through the strait. Throughout the war, energy infrastructure throughout the Gulf suffered strikes.
Are there other options?
Theoretically, oil could be transported on trucks, but this is expensive, slow and inefficient.
A standard truck can carry anywhere between 100 to 700 barrels per day depending on the number of trips. To meet the needs, hundreds of thousands of barrels would be required, thousands of trucks would be required, which could also be targeted in attacks.
