Primary findings: Voters eager for change are eager to put their stamp on Washington

Tuesday’s primaries in three states saw incumbents wobble; general election results were revealed; and runoffs escalated intra-party fighting.

They also highlighted broader lessons about the state of national politics, from President Donald Trump’s enduring power over the GOP to the disagreements over ideology, generation and strategy that continue to divide Democrats.

In Texas, as four-term Senator John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton prepare to compete in the Republican Senate primary on May 26, speculation is rife about whether Trump will ultimately choose a side after other races demonstrated their strength.

Meanwhile, state Rep. James Tallarico won the Democratic primary over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, NBC News reported Wednesday morning. A night marked by close calls and defeats for House incumbents in both parties provided nerve-wracking signals for other establishment figures preparing to face voters later this year.

Here are the main takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries:

democrats choose their fighter

Tallarico’s primary victory is also a victory for those who are offering a populist path for the party that goes beyond Trump.

Throughout the campaign, Tallarico frequently asserted that the battle focused more on “up versus down” rather than “left versus right”, aiming to challenge the political and economic structure dominated by billionaires. Crockett, on the other hand, directly targeted Trump, emphasising his disagreements with the president and portraying himself as a combative opponent.

The state representative also regularly criticised Trump, but his argument became broader.

“It’s really about a values ​​orientation, having the moral clarity to point out who is making people’s lives difficult,” said Tory Gavito, a Texas Democratic strategist and president of the donor network Way to Win.

Gavito met former President Lyndon B. “I’m not sure we’ve ever had this kind of clear, economic populist message, at least not since LBJ,” he said, referring to Johnson, who is also a former Texas senator.

Tallarico also presented herself as a potential bipartisan unifier, while Crockett argued that she could bring in new voters who are more inclined to support Democrats. And he emphasised his extensive campaign organisation, noting at the most recent campaign stop that his campaign had organised 22,000 volunteers.

Gavito noted that while Tallarico began his campaign months before Crockett, he entered the race with higher name recognition and a national profile.

“It feels like the strength of Talarico’s infrastructure matters,” Gavito said.

The fight over the future of the GOP drags on in Texas.

The bitter Republican primary in Texas will play out over the next 12 weeks, as will the battle over what kind of Republican can succeed in today’s GOP—and what kind of Republican can succeed in the general election, too.

With GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt withdrawing from the race due to attacks from both his opponents, Cornyn and Paxton now have the opportunity to directly challenge each other, and they are both prepared for battle.

The primary runoff will test whether long-time legislators like Cornyn, who is a self-described “workhorse,” Will Cornyn find a place in Trump’s Republican Party, or can the combative Paxton unite the MAGA faithful despite his personal and professional disputes?

Despite chest-thumping tones about the first-round results from both Cornyn and Paxton, neither the long-time incumbent nor the well-known MAGA warrior was able to garner a majority of the primary vote.

“Elections are about choices, and the choice in the Republican race for U.S. Senate is absolutely clear,” Cornyn said Tuesday night. “I have worked for decades to build the Republican Party here in Texas and nationally. I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centred and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton to jeopardise everything we have worked so hard to build over so many years.”

Cornyn has repeatedly said that Paxton’s controversies, including his 2023 impeachment on bribery charges (the state Senate acquitted him) and his ongoing divorce, will jeopardise his Senate seat in November.

Paxton, meanwhile, said Tuesday night that “change was on the ballot.” In the primary, he argued that he was better equipped than Cornyn to motivate the MAGA base.

“Texans want new leadership. They want someone who has a proven record of fighting for them and winning, and that’s what I’m going to deliver,” Paxton said, “because for too long, John Cornyn has turned his back on us.”

Paxton criticised the millions of dollars spent to promote Cornyn ahead of Tuesday’s primary. Cornyn and his allies spent more than $78 million on ads, while Hunt and his allies spent more than $12 million and Paxton and his allies spent more than $4 million.

“We have sent a message clearly to Washington: we are not going quietly, and we are not letting you buy this seat,” Paxton said.

Democratic lawmakers face populist headwinds

A win is a win. But even if one of the Democrats’ vulnerable incumbents emerges victorious from his or her House primary, these primaries carry alarming signals for Democratic incumbents and insiders amid a rising tide of populism and generational anger in the party.

Two-term Rep. Valerie Fauci has opened up a nearly 1,000-vote lead over her opponent, Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, in a tight 2022 primary.

Amid growing criticism from the left of the Israeli government’s conduct in Gaza and its relations with the US, Allam described the regime as overly pro-Israel. The challenger described the incumbent as being in line with corporate interests. And Allam, 32, argued that the new energy needed to face this political moment lies not in Fauci, 69, but in him.

The race comes after self-proclaimed activist and agitator Annalia Mejia scored a major upset in a special Democratic House primary in New Jersey last month.

NBC News has not yet predicted a winner in the Foushi-Alam race. But there are many lessons to be learnt from the narrow margin: Fauci emphasised his progressive credentials on the road and drew support from colleagues, arguing that his experience would help the district meet this moment. And he refused to accept support from pro-Israel groups. signature on law: Its purpose is to restrict the sale of certain offensive weapons to Israel.

In Houston, Rep. Christian Menefee, 37, is narrowly ahead of Rep. Al Green, 78, in his surprise Democratic primary. Just a month after securing his seat in the special election, Menefee explicitly advocated for empowering a new generation of leaders, positioning himself as a candidate capable of bringing about significant change for the district.

Similar dynamics could unfold in Democratic primaries for key House and Senate seats across the country, causing incumbents and strong political veterans to take notice.

Strong support for Trump

Trump’s endorsement remains the most valuable coin in the field of GOP primary politics. Republicans want that support. And, as Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, proved Tuesday night, they often can’t stand failing to get it.

Crenshaw had criticised Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, and he has frequently debated with those in Trump’s MAGA movement. While Trump supported every other Republican House incumbent seeking re-election in Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina, he refused to give Crenshaw ‘s endorsement.

On Tuesday, Crenshaw lost his primary to State Representative Steve Toth.

It’s impossible to say with certainty how much Trump’s decision to sit out helped Toth. But there’s no doubt that it hurt Crenshaw—or that other Republicans will listen to Crenshaw’s lesson.

The Texas Senate primary had a slightly different atmosphere. Trump endorsed Cornyn in 2020 but backed off this year. Cornyn fell short of the majority needed to win the GOP nomination on Tuesday but moved on to a runoff against Paxton.

It’s not yet clear whether Trump will choose a horse during the runoff. A person familiar with White House thinking and strategy told NBC News this week that Trump was likely to support Cornyn if he kept the race close—and the senator certainly did. Cornyn’s performance could reinforce the idea that the campaign is a low-risk way to try to keep the Texas Senate seat in Republican hands. If Trump implements this strategy, it could significantly influence the outcome of the primary runoffs.

Trump’s picks also performed well in largely competitive House races – former Major League Baseball star Mark Teixeira, Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, Army veteran Eric Flores, and former Justice Department official Jessica Steinman all won their primaries with Trump’s endorsement.

That said, Trump’s support in some of Texas’s most crowded primary areas was not entirely decisive. In Texas’s 9th District, Trump-backed military veteran Alex Mealer is headed to a showdown against State Rep. Briscoe Cain. And in the 35th District, businessman Carlos de la Cruz is moving ahead as the second-place vote getter despite Trump’s endorsement.

How Trump’s political choices keep his agenda on track in Washington

Trump’s approval ratings are falling, and polls say Americans have soured on Trump’s handling of the two issues that sent him back to the White House: the economy and immigration. But Trump’s political grip on his party extends to governance as well.

Given the length of Crenshaw’s struggles and his inclination to support Trump politically, it is unlikely that any Republican seeking re-election will break away from the president anytime soon. That’s because, as mentioned above, Tuesday night made it clear again that Trump still maintains his bond with Republican primary voters. It’s a useful tool for keeping GOP lawmakers in line with their priorities while their allies in the party control both the House and Senate.

Meanwhile, Trump has recently shown his ability to withdraw his support with equal ease. The president demonstrated his power by rescinding his endorsement of freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd, R-Colo., for breaking with his party and voting to reduce his tariffs on Canada.

Capitol Hill will soon have resulting votes on a war powers resolution to limit Trump’s authority to take action on Iran, potentially leading to more votes to repeal his tariffs, among other things. Tuesday’s results did not provide any political advantage for congressional Republicans to split their positions on these issues.

Tallarico performed well among Latinos. What does it mean to move forward?

While the Democratic Senate primary in Texas has not yet been called, early returns show Tallarico winning counties with large Latino populations, putting him on track to gain the lead over Crockett.

Latino voters were considered a potentially decisive group in the contest, with Crockett’s overwhelming support among Black voters and Tallarico’s lead among white voters in pre-election polling.

As of Wednesday morning, Tallarico was winning all but one of the counties reporting election results, where more than 80% of the population is Latino.

Tallarico attracted Latino voters in the primary, releasing TV ads in Spanish and campaigning in heavily Latino parts of the state. He also had the endorsement of Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, who won the Democratic House primary in a potentially competitive South Texas district.

If Tallarico is the nominee, it could be a promising sign for Democrats. Latino voters have leaned toward Republicans over the past few election cycles, especially in 2024, so Democrats need a candidate who can help reverse that trend. These results might be a favourable place to start for Tallarico, although appealing to Latino primary voters and appealing to Latino general election voters are two different propositions.