Although Minnesota is not Belfast, the warning signs are clear: American news reports that “guns lead to more guns.”

I feel like I’ve seen this horror movie before.

Having grown up in Northern Ireland and reporting from there for 30 years, reporting in the United States has evoked a sense of familiarity. Minnesota is not Belfast, and the United States is not Northern Ireland in 1972, but history doesn’t have to repeat itself for the sake of rhyme.

During the 30 years of conflict, commonly known as “the Troubles”, Northern Ireland demonstrated a brutal truth. When the state increasingly relies on armed presence to manage social and political conflict, it usually fails to restore order.

There were British soldiers who served with distinction on the streets of Northern Ireland—722 of them gave their lives there.

It is equally true that British soldiers were responsible for the killing of innocent people, especially in Derry/Londonderry.

bloody Sunday When 13 people were shot dead and a 14th person was fatally wounded by the Parachute Regiment, IRA The greatest recruiting sergeant.

An eyewitness to the horrors of that day once told me, “Men were lining up around the block to sign up for Provos before sunset.”

The deployment of British troops to a place on the brink of anarchy was apparently intended as a stabilising measure.

However, their presence, with rifles slung over their shoulders and checkpoints positioned on street corners, transformed daily life into a perpetual reminder of danger.

For many residents, especially in nationalist communities, armed policing did not feel protective; it felt aggressive. It was this perception that drove youth towards paramilitary groups, which armed themselves in response.

Seeing more guns on the street, the state increased its power and thus the cycle closed: guns beget guns.

The moments leading up to the fatal ICE shooting are crucial to understanding the incident.

minnesota ice murders Sit uneasily under the same logic – federal immigration enforcement by armed agents in residential neighbourhoods.

It sends a signal, intentional or not, that coercion is the governing language and when deadly force is used, that signal becomes unmistakable.

And it becomes a deadly cycle – deaths become flashpoints, communities react with protests, and authorities respond with heightened security.

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The question quietly becomes: “Why are there guns here?” “Who will take them?” Like politics gives up land in front of power.

Northern Ireland eventually learnt – at the cost of 3,500 lives – that peace comes from taking guns away from the government.

Minnesota is no closer to that cliff yet.

But the warning signs point to an environment where violence is likely to increase.