Champions League final predictions and best bets: Arsenal to beat PSG to almost win men’s double | Football news.

Arsenal face Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League final and by ending their wait for the Premier League title, the Gunners have banished the fear, tension and doubt that plagued previous campaigns, writes betting guru Lewis Jones. He has three tips for big…

Paris Saint-Germain v Arsenal, Champions League Final, Saturday 5pm

Arsenal winning the Premier League is a significant shift for me in terms of betting on the game.

Arsenal are 11/10 with Sky Bet to win Saturday’s final – whether in 90 minutes, extra time or on penalties – and complete the double. PSG are 8/11 favourites to lift the trophy for a second consecutive time.

I think these odds should be closer to each other, as the psychology of this Champions League final feels largely lacking in betting. I was expecting the market to move more favourably towards Arsenal since they won the Premier League – but that hasn’t moved at all.

Arms has almost taken the full force of being a man. But winning the Premier League changes everything.

That monkey is off their back now. Finally, the emotional release of ending the line matters. You could see it at events – it can now suddenly be a detachment from the fear of failure.

This final is now framed as an opportunity rather than an obligation.

Winning the Champions League and completing the double would take this season into legendary territory – but if they fall short, they are still Premier League champions.

History has already been written. This team has gone down in history for what happens here.

Weapons are chasing a bonus reward. This approach makes weapons dangerous.

And even with just one tactical setup, I think Arsenal are very well equipped to stop PSG from having the space and territory to really hurt them. Mikel Arteta will make it ugly and create a game where whoever defends best wins.

The Gunners have kept nine clean sheets in their last 14 Champions League games – the axis of David Raya, William Saliba and Gabriel is as world-class in their work as the PSG front three of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembélé and Désiré Doué.

Arsenal have yet to relinquish open play in the knockout stages – and three of the four goals they scored in the league stage came in the last two games when qualification was confirmed and they were on the prowl.

This is a defence that can lead them to glory.

When it comes to prop markets, these value matches are full of betting opportunities.

One angle I always like to focus on in the final is the foul. The increased risk, extra incentive and good chance that a game of this magnitude goes horribly wrong mean these markets tend to see more false averages than price-maximising algorithms.

The average of the last 30 Europa League and Champions League finals is 28.5 fouls per 90.

For context, the average Premier League game this season has seen 21.5 fouls per 90 games. The Champions League has averaged 22.5 fouls per game.

So from a basic lack of data on a very good sample size, you could probably add six fouls to the expected average of a major European final.

This means there is a great opportunity to back a player in player-foul markets.

Bukayo Saka is the best bet to score two or more fouls at 11/10 with Skybet.

As with all bets in the player foul market, the matchup is absolutely key and Saka’s fight with Nuno Mendes is sure to ‘file’.

Mendes is drawing 1.7 fouls per 90 this season and readily falls with minimal contact. Sacca, a heavy foul-drawer himself, can be quite a nuisance with his tackling, especially in big games, and is working to a 1.4 per 90 strike rate over his last 20 games.

He had two or more fouls in his last two starts against Burnley and West Ham – and to top it all off, Saka picked up two fouls in both knockout matches against Mendes last season with PSG.

long shot…

Set-pieces are another area where Arsenal have an advantage over PSG.

The Gunners have scored the most set-piece goals (24) and goals from corners (18) in the Premier League.

If you go back to the second leg meeting between these two last season, Arsenal scored 0.77 expected goals from set pieces in Paris. It was raining in the long throws – it was a very set-piece-heavy strategy. Expect the same again.

So all the usual tactics for a set-piece-based bet are on the table here with Gabriel being the obvious starting point. However, the odds of 15/2 for him to score are quite slim with Skybet. We can be greedier than that.

If he is going to score, the goal is obviously likely to come from a corner, so the way to play Gabriel Angle is to play two bets with the BuildABet function.

Gabriel to score and Declan Rice to assist – that’s 25/1.

And Gabriel to score and Saka to assist – also 25/1.

In the last two seasons, this exact type of bet has happened five times in the Premier League and Champions League.

And the chances created for a Rice-to-Gabriel or Sacca-to-Gabriel combo have happened 39 times over the past two seasons.

Of course, we also have the added bonus of two bets being able to land at separate times in the match – so, if Gabriel scores and Saka or Rhys assists another Arsenal goal, the bets will still land the same.
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