Voters in Thailand will head to the polls on Sunday amid deep political uncertainty, where the country has gone through three prime ministers in as many years, and amid a tenuous ceasefire with Cambodia following border clashes that left 149 people dead.

The snap poll pits Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai party, which is backed by Thailand’s royal conservative establishment, against the progressive youth-led People’s Party.

The People’s Party is the successor to a group that won the last election but was barred from power and dissolved by the courts over its proposals to reform the country’s powerful monarchy.

Pheu Thai – which has dominated Thai politics for a quarter century – is also attempting a comeback after a difficult period in which two of the party’s prime ministers were ousted by courts and its founder, Thaksin Shinawatra, was jailed late last year.

Sunday’s vote is being seen as a test of whether Thailand’s long-running cycle of coups, street protests and court intervention can be broken, or whether the paralysis will deepen.

Here’s what you need to know about the decisive election:

When are the elections?

Voting will take place on Sunday, 8 February.

About 53 million people are eligible to vote in the state, which has a population of 71 million.

The 500-seat House of Representatives will be filled through a mixed system: 400 constituency seats will be elected by the first-past-the-post system, and 100 seats will be allocated through proportional representation or on a party-list basis.

After this, the newly elected lower house will select the next Prime Minister. Unlike in 2019 and 2023, the appointed Senate, which is dominated by conservative MPs, will have no role in choosing the prime minister.

A candidate requires 251 votes in the House to assume office as prime minister.

Voters will receive three ballots: two for the parliamentary election and one for a referendum on whether to rewrite the Constitution.

When will we know the results?

Polling stations open at 8 am (01:00 GMT) and close at 5 pm (10:00 GMT). The counting of votes will begin shortly after, and the results will be declared as soon as the counting is completed.

The name of the leading party is likely to be clear by early Monday.

Voting percentage is expected to be high. During early voting in the capital Bangkok earlier this week, about 87 per cent of registered advance voters turned out to cast their ballots.

Who are the main contenders?

Bhumjaithai

Under Anutin’s leadership, Bhumjaithai rose to prominence in 2019 with its support of medical marijuana. It has transformed from a mid-sized kingmaker – winning 51 seats in 2019 and 71 seats in 2023 – into a conservative force that is now vying to become one of the largest parties in parliament.

The party formed the current government with the support of the People’s Party after the country’s top court removed Thaksin’s daughter, Patongtaran Shinawatra, as prime minister over her handling of Thailand’s border crisis with Cambodia.

Anutin initially promised constitutional reform and elections within four months, but in December the People’s Party accused him of reneging on his agreement. Facing the risk of a no-confidence vote, he dissolved the House and called an immediate vote.

Bhumjaithai has now re-established himself as a staunch defender of the monarchy and has been boosted by defections, attracting 64 of the 91 MLAs to switch parties after 2023.

Napon Jatusripitak, director of the Center for Politics and Geopolitics at the think tank Thailand Future, said Bhumjaithai is seen as a “pragmatist” and has now “claimed the conservative legacy” from political parties run by former generals.

People’s Party

The People’s Party is the third iteration of a reformist movement whose previous incarnations – most recently Move Forward – were dissolved by the courts.

The party campaigns on reducing the political power of unelected institutions such as the military and the judiciary.

While it was once vocal in calling for changes to Thailand’s lèse-majesté law – under which it is a criminal offence to defame or insult the monarchy – it has softened its stance during this campaign.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of international relations at Chulalongkorn University, described the group as “strange and unprecedented” in Thai politics.

He said, “It was the first party driven not by patronage or money politics, but by reform ideas and policies rather than personalities or provincial bosses.”

pho thai

Pheu Thai and his predecessors dominated Thai politics for 25 years through populist policies, garnering the support of the working class as well as a strong electoral machinery, particularly in the north and northeast.

Despite Thaksin’s imprisonment and the removal of six of its prime ministers by coups and court rulings, the party has avoided mass defections and remains competitive.

It is campaigning on Shinawatra nostalgia, with Thaksin’s nephew Yodchanan Wongsawat as its primary representative.

Thailand Future’s Napon said he expected a “significant decline compared to the last election”, with Pheu Thai potentially falling to third place. Nevertheless, he said the party could gain some seats from the progressive camp in its northern strongholds.

What are the opinion polls suggesting?

A January 30 poll by the National Institute of Development Administration placed People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyavut in first place for prime minister with 29.1 percent, followed by Anutin with 22.4 percent.

Yodchanan lagged behind in fourth place.

For party lists, the People’s Party led with 34.2 per cent, followed by Bhumjaithai with 22.6 per cent and Pheu Thai with 16.2 per cent.

What are the key issues?

The People’s Party has proposed more than 200 policies, including ending military conscription, drafting a new democratic constitution, reforming the bureaucracy, and introducing state-backed programmes to support small businesses.

Bhumjaithai has focused on economic stimulus and security, promising to boost annual growth to 3 per cent, expand welfare schemes, build border walls and make military service more attractive through paid volunteer positions.

Anutin has also promised to defend the monarchy, telling a rally in Bangkok that amending the lèse-majesté laws “will never happen and will never succeed because you have us”.

Phu Thai, meanwhile, has focused his campaign on debt relief as well as income support and transportation subsidies for low-income people. It has also announced a “Millionaire Maker” programme that will offer nine daily prizes of one million baht ($31,556) each.

How is Cambodia involved in this?

The Thai–Cambodian conflict began in July along their disputed border and ended after a second ceasefire in December. The clashes have fuelled nationalist fervour, strengthened Bhumjaithai’s appeal, and exposed Phu Thai’s vulnerability.

Pheu Thai’s Patongtarn was removed as prime minister in September over a leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, in which she was overheard praising him and criticising a Thai commander.

Punchada Sirivunnabud, associate professor of social sciences and humanities at Mahidol University in Bangkok, said nationalism could increase support for Anutin.

“They use it [nationalism] as a concept of support in these elections, and many MLAs from different political parties have moved to Bhumjaithai. This guarantees that they are going to win a lot of seats from the district level,” she said.

On the other hand, questions over the Shinawatra family’s ties to Hun Sen are troubling Pheu Thai candidates in the election campaign, he said.

“This border conflict has hurt Phu Thai a lot,” he said.

What about constitutional reform?

As well as parliamentary elections, voters will also be asked whether to change the 2017 constitution, which was drafted under military rule following a 2014 coup.

Even if approved, the process would be lengthy and uncertain, requiring parliamentary action, Senate support to amend key clauses, and at least two more referendums.

While polls suggest overwhelming support for a “yes” vote, it would not guarantee a new charter or a democratic one.

“It completely depends on the balance of power after the election,” Napon said. “A more conservative parliament could still produce a conservative constitution.”

Will this end Thailand’s political turmoil?

Since no party is expected to get a clear majority, it will be necessary to form a coalition. But any resulting government “is very likely to be unstable”, Napon said, because a partnership between any two of the three major parties would fall short of a majority if one partner withdrew.

Meanwhile, Chulalongkorn University’s Thitinan said he was not encouraged by Thailand’s electoral history.

Only once in 25 years have the voting results been fully respected, he said, with other elections being overturned because of military coups or judicial interference.

“Establishment forces and biases are so deeply entrenched that the Party of Reform and Progress will have to win a large, solid margin of victory to have a chance at governing,” he said.

“Such a large enough gap looks like a slim possibility, unless Thai voters are fed up enough to see through all the posturing and machinations that have kept Thailand behind and rapidly lagging behind its peers,” he said.