A top security expert has warned that escalating conflict could push Britain towards a modern world war, with rising oil prices, economic pain and even a return to selective recruitment.
An expert has warned that recruitment will be needed in Britain (Image: Getty Images)
As the conflict intensifies in the Middle East, experts have warned that the consequences could extend far beyond the battlefield – potentially altering daily life in Britain.
Professor Anthony Glees says that if the current crisis continues to escalate, it could bring the world closer to a modern version of World War Three. But what will the outcome actually mean for Britain?
From the economy and energy prices to hiring prospects, its impact can be felt in homes, workplaces and communities across the country. According to Gleizes, modern war will look very different from the world wars of the 20th century.
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Instead of vast armies clashing on European battlefields, 21st-century global conflict will likely be fought largely with drones, missiles and cyber attacks.
He warned that the current conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel risks turning into a much broader conflict if it continues.
“What started as an air campaign could easily spread,” Gleizes told the Mirror, warning that it could draw in major powers and allies around the world.
He believes the conflict already shows the hallmarks of a new kind of global war: largely non-nuclear but highly technological and potentially long-lasting.
One of the quickest impacts for ordinary Britons will be economic. If fighting disrupts shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz—a vital channel for global energy supplies— oil prices could rise even more dramatically than before.
US is using some UK RAF bases
The waterway transports approximately 25% of the world’s oil supply, indicating that any blockade could have a significant impact on global markets.
Gleizes warned that continued price rises could send oil above £75 ($100) a barrel, fuelling inflation across the West and derailing hopes of interest rate cuts.
Such developments could mean higher fuel bills, rising food prices and more pressure on household budgets. Such an outcome will hit inflation everywhere in the West and put the UK economy’s growth plans into a tailspin,” he warned. Its impact could also increase mortgage costs and slow economic growth.
Britain already maintains military bases in the region, including RAF Akrotiri and RAF Dhekelia in Cyprus. These bases are major hubs for intelligence and military operations in the Middle East. If the conflict escalates, British forces may find themselves directly involved in the fighting, whether through protecting Allied bases or supporting international operations.
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Gleizes says more profound involvement from attacks on Western installations or allies in the Gulf may be inevitable. One of the most dramatic changes may be the return of recruiting.
The expert believes Britain will need to dramatically expand its armed forces if a prolonged global conflict emerges. “It would be necessary to at least double the size of our armed forces,” he said.
However, he believes that a modern system would likely look very different from the mass conscription seen during World War II. Instead, it could follow the model used in countries such as Sweden and Norway, where all young men must register for potential military service but only a few are selected.
The government can also provide significant incentives to encourage people to serve. During World War II, returning soldiers were promised sweeping social reforms, including the creation of a National Health Service and the construction of “homes for heroes.”
In the modern equivalent, Gleizes suggests that incentives might include student loan cancellation, free university education or subsidised mortgages. Such policies could be used to encourage voluntary recruitment, creating a larger reserve force.
If the crisis escalates, Britain will likely work closely with its European partners and NATO allies.
Keir Starmer stands by his decision not to engage in military strikes against Iran (Image: AFP via Getty Images)
The professor says European NATO members, together with Ukraine, could muster about 1.5 million troops – equivalent to the size of Vladimir Putin’s armed forces.
However, he warned that dependence on the United States alone may no longer be realistic. “Regardless of Brexit, we must work together with our European partners,” he said.
For most people in the UK, the impact of the wider conflict will be felt first in their wallets. Rising energy prices, inflation and economic uncertainty can quickly impact living standards.
But if the situation escalates, the impact could be far more personal – from new national service schemes to a larger military presence across the country.
Although a full-scale global war is still not certain, experts warn that the current conflict highlights how quickly international crises can reshape domestic life.
A US military refuelling plane crashed in western Iraq on Thursday, killing four of the six crew members on board. The tanker was involved in ongoing US operations against Iran and was one of two aircraft involved in the incident.
General Dan Cain, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs, said at a press conference on Friday that the plane had crashed “while the crew was on a combat mission”.
“We are still treating the situation as an active rescue and recovery operation,” he said.
