Words are cheap, but the price of oil is extremely honest.
Donald Trump’s claim That the war could end “soon” will make headlines.
Iran war: follow live updates
But traders do not trade on soundbites. They trade at risk.
This explains the sudden urgency of the Commander-in-Chief.
Ten days ago he had warned that the war could last four to six weeks.
He’s claiming it could end “very soon.”
“Not this week,” he told an audience in Florida, but the objectives are “very well accomplished.”
He enumerated his battlefield successes, asserting that he had hit 5,000 targets.
The President said he would “regard” the outcome of the report on a school strike.
But he tried to shift the blame elsewhere for the attack, which claimed dozens of lives.
Trump said many countries, including Iran, use Tomahawks, a “common” weapon.
The UK, Australia, the Netherlands and Japan are the only other countries with Tomahawks.
Unless he is suggesting that one of them attacked, he has effectively implicated the US.
Read more: Evidence challenges Trump’s claim
Iran school strike: what we know
Trump’s ‘epic’ problem
Still, he appears ready to declare victory and get off-ramp.
But his new optimism lands where politics and markets collide.
U.S. crude rose to $119 a barrel, then fell a record 4% at the close.
This is a problem for Trump that Iran has already acknowledged by mocking the military codename: “Operation Epic Fury.”.
“Operation Epic Mistake,” the country’s foreign minister posted along with a graphic of the oil prices.
What effect will the Iran war have on the economy?
Read more from Sky News:
Inside Frontline Ghost Town
Erdogan’s clear message on Iran war
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard says it will “determine the end of the war”.
In a statement, it said Tehran would not allow the export of “one litre of oil” from the region if US and Israeli attacks continued.
Trump posted on Truth Social: “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, the United States will hit them twenty times more heavily than they have already.”
If a businessman is sitting in London, Houston, or Singapore, the question is not what Trump says but what happens on the ground.
In times of conflict, the price of a barrel speaks louder and more truthfully than a president’s promise of peace.
