Iran’s move to close the Strait of Hormuz has brought navigation in the 24-mile stretch of water to a near halt.
Only a few ships have transited in recent days, many of them having turned off their tracking systems or joined “shadow fleets.”
“They can’t physically close a waterway of that size, but the threat exists,” said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of maritime risk company Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
Mr Meade said Iran has a proven history of using everything from ballistic missiles, which are weapons that deliver explosive payloads over long distances, to unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and maritime drones, which are aircraft and watercraft that operate without a human pilot on board.
Through what medium is it being made?
Sky News’ data and forensics team focused on 13 ships that transited the Strait of Hormuz between March 2 and 9.
We know the actual number of crossings is much higher, as some ships turn off their tracking systems, known as going “dark”.
Data from maritime analysis firm IMF Portwatch shows that in normal times, about 30,000 ships transit the strait per year, or 82 per day.
The animation below shows how shipping traffic changed dramatically.
We have identified many ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz that are associated with Iran.
China, or Russia. Ships from Greece, India, the United Arab Emirates and Singapore also arrive here.
According to Kepler’s maritime tracking data, five ships managed by Greek firm Dynacom have transited the strait since the war began.
US President Donald Trump has been urging shipowners to “show some courage” and keep sailing.
The ‘Fleet of Shadow’ has passed the most
According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, shadow fleet tankers dominate the current crossing of the Strait of Hormuz.
They found that eight of the 13 large oil and gas carriers that transited between March 2 and 9 were classified as part of the so-called shadow fleet.
A tanker is classified as a shadow fleet if it carries sanctioned oil cargo from Iran, Russia or Venezuela.
Has there been an attack?
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) reports that since Iran blocked the waterway, ten ships have faced attacks in or around the Strait of Hormuz.
Four ships were attacked on 1 March, killing three and injuring several more that day. Attacks on two ships occurred on 3 March, with at least one attack occurring every day until 7 March.
According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a total of 14 incidents from February 28 to March 10 have affected vessels operating in and around the Arabian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.
The interactive map below displays suspicious activity, attacks, and advisories.
These ships fly the flags of many different countries, including the United States, the Marshall Islands, Gibraltar, the United Arab Emirates, the Bahamas, Panama and India.
On 4 March, a Malta-flagged container ship attempted to transit the strait and was hit by a projectile as it approached the midpoint.
Source- Maritime Transport
Tracking shows that Safin Prestige has been stopped. The attack resulted in a fire in the engine room, forcing the crew to abandon the ship.
Sky News has confirmed CCTV video of another attack on the same day. An unmanned drone boat attacked the American-managed ship, the Sonangol Namibe.
The ship was 30 nautical miles southeast of the Kuwait coast. UKMTO reported oil spillage as the cause of the incident.
The IRGC warned that any American, Israeli or European ship found in the strait “will certainly be attacked.”.
US-registered tanker in Gulf damaged by Iranian maritime drone
Increase in GPS Jamming
There has been a huge increase in GPS jamming in this area. Hundreds of ships hop around the map and then cluster into tiny areas.
Disrupted signals lead to GPS ship jamming, where ships transmit incorrect locations.
There is a traffic jam at these ship locations. Ship tracking data shows them all almost on top of each other. Source – Maritime Traffic
It is impossible to know who is behind the jamming, but analysts say it is likely both Iran and others.
While Iran is widely suspected of trying to disrupt shipping in the region, analysts say the increase in GPS jamming could also be linked to others, including ships trying to hide their activities or responding defensively to threats, making it difficult to attribute the interference to any one source.
How has cargo shipping changed?
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz also has global implications for commercial shipping routes. The two largest companies, Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), account for about 30% of the global containerised shipping capacity in the world.
Both of these companies have suspended shipping to the Middle East.
Maersk said, “This decision has been taken as a precautionary measure to ensure the safety of our personnel and ships.”
Tracking data from MarineTraffic shows the container ship ‘Maersk Cincinnati’ is changing course away from the strait.
On March 2, data showed the ship made a U-turn at approximately 2 a.m. UTC. It continued to retreat from the area until 4 March, eventually returning to the port of Salalah in Oman and heading for the Gulf of Kutch on 10 March, where it appeared “laden,” heavily loaded with ammunition.
Mr Meade said, “We are seeing a number of ships doing U-turns. They are probably getting orders to go and conduct alternative operations. While it may be acceptable for ships entering the Gulf, those already in the region find themselves essentially stranded.
Additional reporting by data journalist Jolie Santa-Cruz
The Data X Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We collect, analyse, and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling, our goal is to better understand the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
