As the US-Israeli war over Iran heads for another disastrous day, pundits and politicians are eager to turn uncertainty into clear narratives that justify their long-held views. Israel talks about “transforming the Middle East”. The US talks about “protecting the American people”. Both parties consistently reiterate the concept of “regime change,” despite its uncertain prospects in the Iranian context.
So far, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has failed to trigger the large-scale uprising within Iran that Israel and the US had called for. Meanwhile, pundits have consistently reiterated that a change in power cannot occur spontaneously.
Nevertheless, the outcome of the war is inevitable. So who is winning?
The immediate impulse is to assume victory for Israel and America. Finally, both countries pulled off a major surprise and appeared to be eliminating the Islamic Republic leadership from the air and sea. Apart from “Massacre,” what could be a bigger achievement than this one?
Given the EU’s weak responses and Asia’s absence from emerging events, the impression becomes stronger that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump have won. Nobody appears capable of proposing a feasible substitute for the Israeli-American dominance.
I would like to suggest a different perspective on the current situation. In short, I propose that Netanyahu and Trump may have won the first round of hostilities, the most strategic and immediate round, although even this “victory” is questionable. This has happened because of the convergence of their extremely short-term interests. But this revived alliance’s life expectancy is as long as it takes for each party to exploit its successes for their own gain.
The first converging interest is political survival. In Israel, Netanyahu will have to distance himself from his leadership credentials and Israel’s serial failures in Gaza and the West Bank. While Israel’s genocide of the Palestinian people continues, Israel is also finding that its complete control over Gaza is slipping away from its grip. So far, its efforts to prevent Turkey and Qatar from having any role have failed.
In the West Bank, the Israeli state and military are fully committed to aiding and abetting land theft and ethnic cleansing. Although most Israelis do not oppose it, their trust in state institutions continues to decline, which pretend to uphold the law while becoming completely politicised.
To ensure his political future, Netanyahu must look beyond these failures. A “victory” in Iran, the country most Israelis consider their most important enemy, should establish him, once again, as the only leader capable of defending Israel.
The prime minister is accompanied by the Israeli military, despite long-standing tensions between the government and the military over the past year. If Netanyahu is desperate to win, the army is even more desperate. Its high command wants to avoid being held solely responsible for the events of October 7, 2023, and is already demanding a significant increase in the budget. Only a “historic victory” would ensure military impunity.
In America, Trump is desperate not only to win but also to divert attention. His “heroism” in Venezuela has already been forgotten, while his “antics” recorded in the Epstein files echo more powerfully every day.
His use of “regime change” appears to be intentionally vague, open to any and all interpretations, allowing him to declare “mission accomplished” whenever he wants.
Trump is also keen to appear perfectly capable of supporting his vision of a world order, which involves only “making right”. The apparent contradiction between his “no foreign wars” commitment to his base and his pursuit of American exceptionalism and triumphalism is easily resolved when it comes to the Islamic Republic, a perennial quagmire.
All told, Trump and Netanyahu don’t trust each other. Neither side has anything other than an immediate interest in pursuing further cooperation.
Once the distractions stop, an uncertain war will break out between the two. There will be pressure on Trump to end the operation quickly, while Netanyahu will try to prolong it.
Trump lacks the attention and public support needed for a long war. He cannot keep “boots on the ground”, and this is the reason behind his repeated messages to “help” and “be there” for the Iranians when they took over his country. He is facing severe criticism at home not only for launching this war without Congressional approval but also for potential American casualties and the long commitment.
Just like Gaza, Netanyahu has no real plan except destruction and death. He wants the war to last as long as possible to keep out the opposition and ensure his political survival. It is no surprise that the official message about the war is that Israel will be in it “for as long as it takes” and that it will be “longer than the June War” and a “historic operation”. The more the rhetoric escalates, the more the campaign will become one of endless, indiscriminate bombing, and civilian casualties will increase.
This difference will become self-evident as the US and Israel gradually issue more spaced-out statements, each citing their own particular rationale and timeframe. Trump will continue to send his views as the Islamic Republic begins the constitutional process to elect a new supreme leader, meaning the Islamic Republic is still standing. Israel will remain deliberately vague as it describes its progress in glowing, nondescript terms like “true regime change”.
Wait for this unholy alliance to slowly grow and then rapidly collapse in the immediate time frame. His best victory is a terrible victory.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
