While the Gulf region tops some of the world’s largest oil reserves, the prices we pay at the pump are not immune to the global chaos. Following recent changes in international policy and rising tensions involving major energy players, global oil benchmarks have surged. From the boardrooms of Wall Street to the gas stations of Dubai and Doha. For residents of the UAE and the wider GCC, this is not just a headline; it is a direct hit to monthly budgets as regional fuel committees step in to align local prices with the increasingly volatile global market.
Global oil prices cross $150
Oil markets have surged in recent days as rising tensions between Iran, the United States and Israel raise fears of supply disruptions across the Middle East. Benchmark Brent crude neared $105 a barrel, rising sharply as traders worry the conflict in the region could impact energy infrastructure and shipping routes. One of the biggest concerns is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow channel through which about a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes every day. Any disruption in tanker traffic through this route could push oil prices even higher, which would have an impact on global energy markets.
What is Brent Crude Oil and why does it matter?
Global oil prices are often measured using Brent crude, one of the most widely used benchmarks for crude oil trading around the world. Brent crude represents oil extracted from fields in the North Sea, but its price has become the global reference point for energy markets. About two-thirds of internationally traded crude oil is priced using the Brent benchmark. Because Brent reflects global supply and demand, its price directly affects how much countries pay for refined fuels such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. When Brent crude rises sharply, it often causes fuel prices to rise in many countries, including countries that produce oil themselves.
Will petrol prices increase in the UAE?
For UAE residents, rising oil prices could translate into higher costs at petrol stations. Since 2015, fuel prices in the UAE have been adjusted monthly by the UAE Fuel Price Committee, which reviews international crude oil prices along with refining and delivery costs. Because of this system, petrol prices in the UAE move broadly in line with global oil markets. If crude oil prices remain high for several weeks, the increase is usually reflected in the next monthly fuel price update. This means motorists across the country are keeping a close eye on oil markets to see whether the recent surge will impact the next petrol price announcement.
How expensive can petrol be for UAE residents?
Fuel prices in the UAE have fluctuated throughout 2025 and early 2026 depending on global oil trends. Analysts say that if oil continues to trade above $100 per barrel, petrol prices may rise again in the coming months. Based on past price patterns, if crude moves towards $110-$120 per barrel, petrol in the UAE could potentially move towards the Dh3.60 to Dh4 per litre range. However, the exact price will depend on a number of factors, including refining costs, shipping expenses and currency fluctuations. Because prices are reviewed every month, any continued bounce in the oil markets could affect fuel prices in the next pricing cycle.
What about the rest of the Gulf countries?
The impact of rising oil prices is not limited to the UAE. Fuel pricing policies vary across the Gulf Cooperation Council, meaning residents of other Gulf countries may experience different impacts. In Saudi Arabia, petrol prices are periodically reviewed by the government and national oil giant Saudi Aramco. While the kingdom produces the world’s largest amount of oil, fuel prices can still adjust based on global market trends and domestic economic policies. Meanwhile, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain also regularly review petrol prices; adjustments are often linked to international oil benchmarks such as Brent crude. This means that a prolonged increase in global oil markets could gradually increase fuel prices in these countries. In Kuwait, petrol prices are more heavily subsidised than in some of its neighbours, which may help insulate residents from rapid market fluctuations. However, the continued rise in global crude oil prices may still influence future policy decisions.
looking ahead
If Brent crude continues to trade above $100 a barrel for a long time, analysts say gasoline prices in many Gulf countries could gradually rise in the coming months. Additionally, higher oil revenues could strengthen government finances across the region. Ultimately, the direction of fuel prices will depend on how the geopolitical situation develops – particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy corridors. For now, motorists in the UAE and the GCC are keeping a close eye on global oil markets, as the next move in crude oil prices could determine how much they pay at the pump in the coming weeks.
