Speaking to ET Now, currency expert Abhishek Goenka offered a measured but candid view of the rupee’s recent weakness and the road ahead.
In response to a question on the currency’s sharp slide and limited RBI intervention, Goenka noted that the rupee is currently seeking its natural equilibrium. “It finds its true level and unfortunately at this point of time neither the current account nor the capital account is in our favour and right now we are seeing that run of rupee like we see every two-three years, but I do not think this is something which something needs to about,” he said.
He explained that while the rupee typically sees around 3% depreciation in a cycle, this year it has already fallen close to 6%, leaving it “clearly undervalued by around 3%.” In the near term, Goenka believes the currency could slip further. “So, in short term the markets could go maybe 90.5, 91 it is anybody’s guess,” he said.
However, he emphasised that the medium-term picture remains far more stable. With inflation under control, growth holding steady, and expectations that gold imports will cool off, he believes the current account position should improve. He also anticipates positive developments on the trade front. Once these factors align, Goenka expects the rupee to firm up: “rupee is going to find its true level, I think that is close to around 88 to a dollar and these are good levels to actually start booking long-term positions of exports, especially for exporters who are active in the market.”
When asked whether a further slide was still on the cards, Goenka acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding short-term moves. “Well, it is anybody’s guess, but technically obviously the levels of 90.75 are the first levels that possibly rupee could go,” he said.
But he also pointed out that markets may soon get relief from policy actions or announcements. “As I said, we are entering into a zone where we could see some announcements coming from either India or US, something to stop this free fall and our fundamentals are saying is pretty okay. I do not think we should be reading too much in the news right now and I think we should start thinking on at these levels.”
As traders brace for volatility, Goenka’s message is clear: the worst may not be over in the very short term, but the structural story remains intact—and the rupee may well be undervalued rather than broken.
