Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insights across the midweek card of Premier League fixtures.
Chelsea v Leeds, Tuesday 7.30pm
One of my favourite betting angles this season is centre-forwards fouling centre-backs.
This season’s Premier League is a bruising commodity to watch. The data and the eye test tell the same story: that the league leans toward directness with too much emphasis on winning first contact. And when that happens, centre-forwards don’t just score goals; they start giving away fouls.
The result? Centre-backs are fouling more often than the market expects.
Joao Pedro has come to life under Liam Rosenior, putting in some electric performances as a central striker while also committing a healthy number of fouls. Six started as a centre forward under the new boss. He committed eight fouls. Joe Roddon is in the foul line when fouls are drawn, where he fouls +2 times at odds of 4/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Everton v Bournemouth, Tuesday 7.30pm
Everton midfielder James Garner is showing a strong game to foul at +2 at 11/4 with Sky Bet. Garner has hit the mark in 10 of his 20 starts in central midfield this season, showing he’s no stranger to stepping up at crucial moments.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth’s Alex Scott has been a magnet for fouls, drawing 14 in his last eight appearances. The battle between Garner and Scott in the middle of the park should promise the Everton man few challenges as he tries to disrupt Scott’s rhythm.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | Jones’s best bet: James Garner fouls +2 (11/4 with Sky Bet)
Tottenham v Newcastle, Tuesday 7.30pm
Just two wins in 16 Premier League games leave Tottenham just six points from safety and suddenly flirting with the drop.
Sky Bet is not messing about either. Spurs are now just 10/1 to go down.
If they don’t find form quickly and West Ham keep winning, that relegation scrap could become a reality. The matter is becoming serious.
Thomas Frank’s Spurs are now just 10/1 to be relegated
Spurs are easily upset here at 19/10, and Sky Bet have also won just one of their last 11 Premier League home matches.
Meanwhile, Eddie Howe usually delivers a result for Newcastle when the chips are down, and he will use frustration among the home fanbase as a weapon in the hope that the North London faithful will turn to their side. That’s why a quick start is expected, which makes the half-time/full-time market for Newcastle/Newcastle a smart way to increase the odds of an away win with Sky Bet at 5/2.
Score Prediction: 1-2
West Ham v Manchester United, Tuesday 8.15pm
One of the standout bets on the midweek card is Crisencio Summerville with Sky Bet to have a shot at goal at evens. The winger has been a thorn in Premier League defences of late, registering nine shots on target in his last six matches.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s tactical system clearly suits Summerville, giving him the freedom to move into dangerous positions and create big moments. Against a Manchester United side that has largely shown weakness, expect Somerville to be buzzing for another effort on goal.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES Knows’ Best BET: Crysensio Summerville +1 shot on target (Evens with Sky Bet)
Aston Villa v Brighton, Wednesday 7.30pm
Brighton is a great bet edge to absorb the wobbles. Just one win in 12 games isn’t a blip; it’s a crisis – yet markets still priced them as a dangerous outfit. Villa, notoriously ruthless and efficient at home, are on offer at 10/11 with Sky Bet for maximum points. Based on what Brighton is serving, it looks generous.
Fabian Hurzeler’s side are struggling for creativity and confidence. The end could be near for him as Brighton boss.
Score Prediction: 2-0
Crystal Palace v Burnley, Wednesday 7.30pm
Jorgen Strand Larsen played like a man making his debut, proving a big point. It wasn’t always pretty or easy on the eyes, but he made his presence felt in Brighton’s 1-0 win. Three fouls and a yellow card in his first appearance showed a striker apparently keen to impose himself and make a statement.
Strand Larsen averages around 1.9 fouls per game in the Premier League. That’s nearly two yellow card-worthy moments every 90 minutes. He carries the air of a striker playing as if it’s only a matter of time before he oversteps, mistimes a challenge or succumbs to frustration. As he did at Brighton when stopping an attack with a cynical pull of the shirt.
Jorgen Strand Larsen is 19/2 to card with Sky Bet
Strand Larsen is a striker – sure – but a striker who is touchy, combative and clearly wants to make a mark. The odds are huge at 19/2 with Sky Bet for a card.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | Jones’s best bet: Jorgen Strand Larsen to be carded (19/2 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City v Fulham, Wednesday 7.30pm
This version of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City always gives you a chance. It’s a far cry from their controlled and possession-obsessed style.
Fulham, meanwhile, aren’t here to make up the numbers. Both teams have gone on to score in 12 of their last 15 games, and they have managed the feat in their last four visits to the Etihad. It’s not luck; it’s a proven blueprint for City to be able to hit the counter, capitalise on mistakes and play with freedom.
City will score – of course they will – but Fulham are likely to join the ranks. Both teams look 4/5 bets with Sky Bet to score.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Nottingham Forest v Wolves, Wednesday 7.30pm
Morgan Gibbs-White and Wolves. Make no mistake, there is bad blood.
Every touch will be scrutinised, every run will be jeered at, and if he gets on the scoresheet, emotions are going to explode.
Gibbs-White isn’t shy either. He’s competitive, fiery and at 10/1 with Sky Bet to score and pick up a card, screaming value. Picture the scene: A Gibbs-White goal sparks celebrations in what has now become a very big game for Forest. The shirt may come off, which triggers the booking.
Combine the two via the Sky Bet BuildABet function and 10/1 looks like a steal
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Sunderland v Liverpool, Wednesday 8.15pm
If you want a betting market that rewards football match-ups rather than predicting them to perfection, the “fouled” market is about as good as it gets.
Bookmakers essentially foul prices out of averages and historical data. What they struggle to fully account for is the role within a particular match-up. Like a foul-heavy centre-forward playing against an intelligent centre-back. That is what we have here.
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It’s not about Van Dijk losing control or his cool. It rarely happens.
It’s about drawing Van Dijk into a very specific kind of conflict against his counterpart in Brian Bobby, who is not a subtle centre-forward. His game is built on conflict.
Last season at Ajax he averaged 1.8 fouls per 90, a huge number for a striker working in a possession-dominant team. Even bigger is his recent trend of nine fouls in his last six games, where he’s been bullying big-name opponents. Van Dijk is 10/11 +1 foul to win with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Brentford v Arsenal, Thursday 8.15pm
Arsenal are scoring relentlessly, conceding here and there and making life very difficult for those trying to keep them calm. It’s the perfect cocktail to support a goal line of over 2.5 when the odds flirt around the even money mark. Their last 13 games have averaged 3.4 goals per 90 minutes, and 10 of those matches have been over 2.5 goals.
Even without Brentford’s contribution, Arsenal alone could easily cover this line. They have scored three or more goals in 10 of their last 13 matches. It’s ruthless attacking form from a team that knows how to punish mistakes with precision.
