Congress is disconnected from the public. It needs fresh blood. There should be a term limit. right?
Congressional term limits are one of the most supported policy ideas. According to the 2023 Pew Research Center, 9 in 10 Americans support this idea. study. Other polls back up this finding. As a result, lawmakers have introduced several bills to amend the constitution and limit the number of terms in and among the Senate to two. Three To Six In the house
But the idea, if implemented, would cripple an already ineffective Congress.
First, while Americans may like the idea of ​​term limits, their view of Congress has no bearing on how long lawmakers serve.
Take, for example, the 97th session of Congress, which began in 1981. Its legislators were notably green. According to data compiled by the Daily Kos from the Congressional Research Service, the average years of service at the start of this session were 7.3 in the House and 7.5 in the Senate. He ranks as the shortest average tenure in each chamber from the 1950s to the present. The average approval rating for this session was 33.5%. Gallup Data
Meanwhile, the 100th Congress, which began in 1987, was on average more experienced—9.0 years in the House and 9.6 years in the Senate—and had a higher average approval rating at 42.0%.
A broader look at history shows little correlation between a legislature’s tenure and popular approval of Congress.
In the 10 most recent sessions of Congress, the average years of service have been 9.2 in the House and 11.0 in the Senate, nearly identical to the previous 10 sessions (8.9 years in the House, 10.9 in the Senate). However, Congress’s average approval rating over the 10 most recent sessions has been just 19.5%, less than half of what it was over the previous 10 sessions (40.0% average).
Break the last 25 sessions into five-session chunks and you get the same very low correlation. For example, the five sessions beginning in the 100th and the five sessions beginning in the 115th have essentially the same average years of service in both chambers—but Congress’s average approval rating is 10 points lower for the latter five sessions.
Of course, there are countless examples of long-serving, out-of-touch politicians: your Mitch McConnell, your Chucks Grassley and Schumer. There is no doubt that these are the types of politicians Americans are imagining when they say they want term limits (or maximum age limits, which are not currently available in American politics and are beyond the scope of this article).
But who will replace them? Democrats may have a somewhat promising start, but on the Republican side, new lawmakers tend to be more enthusiastically MAGA — and alienating to most Americans. Do not support that movement.
Experienced legislators are also generally more effective when it comes to making laws. Finally, becoming a member of Congress is a job, and like all jobs, experience matters.
Green legislators tend to trust more experienced colleagues and lobbyists too much, as both often possess a profound understanding of policymaking. Remove these veteran lawmakers from the equation and Congress’ dependence on special interest groups is likely to increase.
Worse, if legislators know they have only a handful of terms, they have fewer reasons to learn how to be effective.
“[W] If you limit someone, you’re effectively removing their incentive to invest in learning how to do the job, to explore policy issues in the depth they need to and how the process works, which only takes years,” said Casey Burgett, director of the Legislative Affairs Program at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Management and Political Management. told NPR in 2023. There is no training programme.
By their very nature, term limits automatically terminate effective legislatures. Representative Joaquin Castro of Texas was the most effective legislative House Democrat in the 118th Congress. Study from the Center for Effective Legislation. Despite Castro being a member of a minority party, “his style of working behind the scenes – to compromise and insert his bill language into other legislative vehicles – shows more opportunities for minority-party lawmakers to succeed in Congress”, the study said.
Even the most generous legislation, with a six-term maximum in the House, would have barred him from running for his seat in 2024. He was first elected in 2012.
In fact, the six-term maximum would have now removed six of the most legislatively effective House Democrats in the 118th Congress. Oh, three: the duration limit would have booted all but one. In total, the average tenure of those 10 most effective Democrats is more than 17 years. Turns out, experience is very valuable.
The same is true in the Senate. In the 118th Congress, 6 of the 10 most legislatively effective Democratic senators have served or are serving more than two terms—the usual maximum in term-limit legislation. The two-term maximum would have barred Jon Tester, the Senate’s fourth-most effective Democrat in the 118th session, from running for and winning re-election in 2018 in GOP-friendly Montana. As it is, Tester raced, won and produced results.
There are several other problems with term limits. Studies show that promoting political polarisation appears to be an obstacle to economic development.
“To the extent that we are concerned about perverse electoral incentives and poorly performing institutions, there are potentially better solutions and reforms that do not sacrifice desirable aspects of electoral accountability,” said Anthony Fowler, professor of public policy at the University of Chicago. concluded in a 2024 review of research on term limits.
Meanwhile, there is at least one better solution to increasing electoral accountability and productivity in Congress. It likewise enjoys a high level of public support. There is no need for constitutional amendment for this.
Ban gerrymandering.
Any updates?
- Democratic candidates in House and Senate races are outperforming in polls across the country, with at least one exception. In Washington’s 3rd District, Democratic Rep Mary Glossenkamp Perez is leading Republican challenger John Brown by 1 percentage point, according to a new survey from Emerson College and the Northwest Progressive Institute, despite Brown’s previous win in 2022. Survey from Emerson College and Northwest Progressive Institute. Gluesenkamp Perez nearly won in 2024, by 4 points. However, 11 per cent of likely voters are undecided, and the poll’s margin of error of 4 points means a Gluesenkamp-Perez win is possible. Still, for Democrats, poindicateshow that none of the seats are competitive this year.
- Call it the trickle-down statistic: Trump is unpopular, and so is every member of his cabinet. A new one, Poll: Not a single current member of Trump’s cabinet has a net positive approval rating, according to YouGov. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the top-performing cabinet lackey, had a net approval rating of -3 points. In a three-way tie for last place, each with a net approval rating of -16 points, are Secretary of Education Linda McMahon, Secretary of Defence Pat Hegseth, and Acting Attorney General Todd Blanch.
Check the vibe
In lieu of our regularly scheduled vibe check this week, I’d like to pay tribute to Dennis Oliver Wells, who passed away on Wednesday. Since I started at Daily Kos in 2023, I have had the honour of editing many of its “Caribbean Matters” and “Black Music Sunday” columns. They have introduced me to neglected issues and wonderful tunes. I will be forever grateful for that.
Many people in the Daily Kos community knew her far better than I did, and if you’re one of them, my thoughts are with you.
