Ten years after Britain voted to leave the European Union, the debate over Brexit remains as intense as ever and questions over economic growth, immigration and Britain’s global standing are dividing the country.
According to the AP, on June 23, 2016, 52% of voters supported leaving the European Union, leading to the largest political and economic shakeup in Britain since World War II. Although lengthy negotiations delayed Brexit’s formal implementation for years, people still debate its consequences.
Economic promises meet reality
Supporters of Brexit argued that Britain would flourish outside the EU, gaining control over policymaking and striking new trade deals around the world.
But economists say the expected economic growth has not occurred.
Businesses face customs paperwork, border checks, certification and other non-tariff barriers when trading with the EU, which remains the UK’s largest trading partner. Many of the trade deals favoured by Brexit supporters, including those with the United States, have yet to materialise.
Experts estimate that the British economy would have been 4% to 8% smaller had the country remained in the bloc.
“Brexit has left Britain’s economy smaller than it would otherwise be,” said Jonathan Portes, a professor at King’s College London, according to the AP.
“The effect has not been a sudden collapse, but rather a gradual and cumulative decline in trade, investment and productivity,” he wrote in an article for the UK in the Changing Europe think tank.
Brexit supporters argue that the project should be evaluated over decades rather than years and say that greater control over domestic policies would ultimately outweigh the short-term economic disruption.
Immigration at the center of debate
One of the central promises of the Brexit campaign was tighter controls on immigration.
While migration from EU countries has declined sharply, arrivals from non-EU countries have increased following changes to rules that were designed to address labour shortages in sectors such as healthcare and elderly care.
Net migration has since fallen from more than 900,000 in 2023 to 171,000 last year. However, public anger has increasingly focused on asylum seekers arriving in small boats across the English Channel.
Despite accounting for only a fraction of overall migration, the issue has become one of Britain’s most contentious political debates.
Brexit reshaped British politics
The referendum also changed Britain’s political landscape. The Conservatives, who spent years battling division in Europe, are set to lose power in 2024 after 14 years in government. Keir Starmer’s Labour government has also struggled to win over voters, while support has grown for Reform UK, led by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage.
Furthermore, public opinion seems to be changing. According to an Ipsos poll, 52% of Britons would support rejoining the EU, while 33% would oppose the idea.
The polling firm also found that 48% believe Brexit has gotten worse than expected, while only 9% believe it has got better. Nearly half of respondents said they would support another referendum on EU membership.
Can Britain change course?
Despite changing public sentiment, Brexit remains politically difficult to reverse.
The Labour government has ruled out rejoining the EU or returning to the bloc’s single market, opting instead for a “reset” in relations with Brussels focused on reducing trade frictions.
Andy Burnham, considered a potential future Labour leader, recently rejected suggestions that Britain should reconsider EU membership. Burnham said, “I am not proposing that Britain consider rejoining the European Union.”
“I respect the decision taken in the referendum and if we don’t respect that vote, it will undermine everything I have said about strengthening democracy.” A decade after the referendum, Brexit may be legally complete, but its economic, political and social consequences will continue to shape Britain’s future.
