The competition for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft is intensifying. Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker has emerged as a serious challenger to Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, whose exceptional performances have made him one of college football’s most highly rated prospects.
Recent market figures illustrate just how competitive the race has become.
Latest 2027 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds
FanDuel odds reported by FOX Sports, 29 October 2026. These are historical quoted prices, not live odds. FOX Sports
| Player | College | American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | Ohio State | +150 |
| Drew Mestemaker | Oklahoma State | +250 |
| CJ Carr | Notre Dame | +350 |
| Darian Mensah | Miami | +1200 |
| Trinidad Chambliss | Ole Miss | +1400 |
| Arch Manning | Texas | +1600 |
A more recent prediction-market snapshot shows how much momentum Mestemaker has gained.
Drew Mestemaker
37%
Jeremiah Smith
33%
Kalshi market snapshot retrieved on 5 November 2026. These are market-implied estimates, not guaranteed probabilities or sportsbook odds. Kalshi
The contrast between the two snapshots highlights the changing market. Smith was the sportsbook favourite in late October, but by 5 November Mestemaker had moved narrowly ahead on the Kalshi prediction market.
Why Drew Mestemaker is rising in the 2027 NFL Draft rankings
Drew Mestemaker has become one of the most fascinating stories in college football.
His journey to NFL Draft consideration is particularly unusual because he did not start a varsity game at quarterback during high school. Instead, he served as a backup quarterback and earned recognition as a punter.
After developing at North Texas, Mestemaker continued his rise at Oklahoma State.
According to FOX Sports, he threw for 2,326 yards and 20 touchdowns through his first seven games of the 2026 season. Those performances helped establish him as one of the most productive quarterbacks in college football. FOX Sports
His appeal goes beyond the numbers. NFL scouts evaluate how quarterbacks process defensive coverage, make decisions under pressure, deliver accurate passes and operate within an offensive system.
Mestemaker’s improvement has placed him firmly in the discussion about the best quarterback available in 2027.
Jeremiah Smith remains an exceptional NFL prospect
While Mestemaker is attracting increasing attention, Jeremiah Smith remains one of the most highly regarded players in the entire draft class.
The Ohio State receiver combines size, speed, athleticism and excellent ball-catching ability.
His performances during the 2026 college football season have strengthened his reputation.
Against Illinois, Smith recorded 12 receptions, 217 receiving yards and four touchdowns. He also delivered an outstanding performance against Iowa, catching 11 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns.
Those performances helped him become Ohio State’s all-time leader in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. FOX Sports
Smith is widely regarded as an elite prospect because he can make contested catches, create separation and produce explosive plays.
However, being the best overall player does not necessarily guarantee selection with the first pick.
Why quarterbacks have an advantage in the NFL Draft
The most important factor in Mestemaker’s favour may be the position he plays.
The quarterback remains the most valuable position in American football. Teams without an established franchise quarterback often prioritise finding one, even when another player is considered the better overall prospect.
A quarterback can influence almost every offensive possession, making the position central to a team’s long-term plans.
Recent draft history supports this approach.
Quarterbacks were selected first overall in four consecutive NFL Drafts from 2023 through 2026.
The last wide receiver selected with the No. 1 overall pick was Keyshawn Johnson in 1996. FOX Sports+1
For Jeremiah Smith to break that trend, the team holding the first selection would need to believe his talent offers greater value than the available quarterbacks.
Alternatively, a team already satisfied with its quarterback situation could decide that Smith is simply too valuable to overlook.
Arch Manning slips down the rankings.
Another important development in the 2027 NFL Draft race has been the changing outlook for Texas quarterback Arch Manning.
Manning entered the season carrying enormous expectations, partly because of his famous football family and partly because of his physical abilities.
However, his performances have not consistently matched the early predictions.
FOX Sports reported that Manning had fallen from a previous +165 favourite to +1600 in its odds snapshot on 29 October.
Through seven games, he had thrown for 1,507 yards, with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions. FOX Sports
Those figures do not eliminate him from contention, but they help explain why other quarterbacks have moved ahead in the market.
Manning still has the talent to improve his draft position before the end of the college season.
Other players challenging for the No. 1 pick
Mestemaker and Smith are attracting considerable attention, but the race remains open.
Notre Dame quarterback CJ Carr is another major contender. His passing ability, decision-making and potential have placed him near the top of several draft projections.
Miami quarterback Darian Mensah has also gained attention, while Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss remains an intriguing prospect.
Recent draft analysis from Sports Illustrated suggests that the quarterback class contains considerable depth, even though Smith continues to be viewed as the leading overall talent by many evaluators. SI
That creates an interesting situation for NFL teams.
A franchise holding the first selection might choose its preferred quarterback, while another team could trade up to secure Smith.
The eventual draft order will be crucial.
What could decide the 2027 NFL Draft’s first pick?
Several factors could determine whether Mestemaker overtakes Smith permanently.
Mestemaker must continue demonstrating consistency against strong opponents. Scouts will want to see whether his passing production translates into the technical skills required at the NFL level.
Smith must maintain his outstanding receiving performances and show that he can consistently influence games against elite defensive competition.
The identity of the team holding the first pick will also matter.
A team needing a quarterback could favour Mestemaker or another passer, while a franchise with an established starter might be more interested in Smith.
Medical evaluations, interviews, college performances and pre-draft assessments will all contribute to the final decision.
For now, neither player can be considered a certain No. 1 selection.
Conclusion
The 2027 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds have developed into an exciting contest between two very different prospects.
Jeremiah Smith offers exceptional wide receiver talent and the potential to become a game-changing NFL offensive weapon.
Drew Mestemaker, meanwhile, has rapidly developed into a serious quarterback prospect whose value could increase further because of the importance of his position.
The latest prediction-market figures suggest Mestemaker has already moved into a narrow lead, although different markets continue to offer different assessments.
With several months remaining before the draft, the race is far from settled.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is the favourite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2027 NFL Draft?
Drew Mestemaker narrowly led Jeremiah Smith in the Kalshi market snapshot retrieved on 5 November 2026. However, Smith was the favourite in the latest verified FanDuel odds published by FOX Sports on 29 October.
Which college does Drew Mestemaker play for?
Drew Mestemaker plays quarterback for Oklahoma State, having previously played at North Texas.
What position does Jeremiah Smith play?
Jeremiah Smith is a wide receiver for Ohio State.
Could Jeremiah Smith become the first wide receiver selected as the No. 1 in decades?
Yes. If selected first overall, Smith would become the first wide receiver to achieve that distinction since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996.
Is Arch Manning still a contender?
Yes. Although his odds have lengthened, Manning remains a possible early selection, depending on his performances and NFL teams’ evaluations
